PRESS RELEASE

                                                                                                          30 MAY 2002

 

Emission and electricity trading simulation suggests sellers’ market

 

Results of the Baltic Sea Region’s first CO2 emission and electricity trading simulation presented at BASREC’s St Petersburg conference, May 28, suggest that Kyoto Protocol emission objectives will affect the profile of power generation in the region. Other energy policy choices, particularly in the nuclear and renewable dimension, will also have a prominent effect on strategies adopted to reduce CO2. The simulation also highlighted the impact of the CO2 market on the traded electricity prices.

Governments of the ten Baltic Sea states and 20 electricity and energy companies took part in the simulation during March and April 2002 to explore the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms and the interaction between the electricity and emissions markets. One of Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms, Emissions Trading lets countries emitting less than their allowance of greenhouse gases sell their surplus allowance to countries whose emissions exceed their allowance. 

While not intended as an accurate projection of the future, the simulation indicates that countries’ CO2 emission allowances could affect competition and pricing among power generators.  “Under a fully-open electricity market, as was assumed here, the electricity trade picture could change significantly once the cost of CO2 is included in electricity prices,” says Richard Baron, of the International Energy Agency.

“How governments will organise for trading under Kyoto is also an area where the simulation raised a few issues,” Baron says. There were indications that government emission reduction strategies would not be systematically adjusted to the price of CO2, and that not all those with surplus allowances for sale would sell them on the international CO2 market in the first commitment period.  Large sellers could dominate the international CO2 market and determine CO2 prices and during the simulation they remained higher than expected.

This was the first electricity trading simulation to cover such a large geographical area with so many players, based on existing production and transmission capacities and demand.

Emissions Trading aims to achieve set emission targets at minimum cost. The simulation carried out in the Baltic Region was aimed at deepening participants’ understanding of the mechanism. It showed that emission trading allowed electricity generators to balance national energy strategies with CO2 reduction objectives set by the Kyoto Protocol and to do so at reduced cost.

For further information please contact:

General enquiries:

Specific to the simulation:

Olle Björk
Co-chair BASREC ad hoc group, Climate Change
tel:
+46 70 542 6264
email : olle.bjork@industry.ministry.se

Alexander Popov,
Co-chair BASREC ad hoc group, Climate Change
tel: +7 095 220 6325, email : popov@mte.gov.ru
Seppo Silvonen, Council of the Baltic Sea States
tel : +46 8 440 1930,email seppo.silvonen@cbss.st

Richard Baron
International Energy Agency |
tel: +33 1 4057 6724
email: Richard.baron@iea.org

About the Conference on the testing ground for the development and implementation of the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol :

Governments, industry and experts gathered to discuss the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms in the Baltic Sea Region, from 26th to 28th May 2002, in St Petersburg, the Russian Federation. The conference will increase understanding of the mechanisms, which help countries meet greenhouse gas reduction targets, and outline the framework for their implementation among businesses, government and academia.

The conference is arranged by BASREC in conjunction with the Nordic Council of Ministers, the EU, BALTREL, Baltic Gas, and the International Energy Agency. For a speaker list and agenda, please see www.basrec.org

About BASREC

 The Baltic Sea Region Energy Co-operation (BASREC) is a forum for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and discussing other developments in the energy sector. It is committed to clarifying the international framework aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Founded following a regional ministerial and European Commission conference in Helsinki in 1999, BASREC includes representatives of the governments of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Russia and Sweden; and the European Comminssion’s Directorate General for Transportation and Energy (DG TREN).

For more information about BASREC, please see www.cbss.st/BASREC